Group Testing Large Populations for SARS-CoV-2

Group testing, the testing paradigm which combines multiple samples within a single test, was introduced in 1943 by Robert Dorfman. Since its original proposal for syphilis screening, group testing has been applied in domains such as fault identification in electrical and computer networks, machine learning, data mining, and cryptography. The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has led to proposals for using group testing in its original context of identifying infected individuals in a population with few tests. Studies suggest that nonadaptive group testing - in which all the tests are determined in advance - for SARS-CoV-2 could help save 20% to 90% of tests depending on the prevalence. However, no systematic approach for comparing different non-adaptive group testing strategies currently exists. In this paper we develop a software platform for evaluating non-adaptive group testing strategies in both a noiseless setting and in the presence of realistic noise sources, modelled on published experimental observations, which makes them applicable to polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests, the dominant type of tests for SARS-CoV-2. This modular platform can be used with a variety of group testing designs and decoding algorithms. We use it to evaluate the performance of near-doubly-regular designs and a decoding algorithm based on an integer linear programming formulation, both of which are known to be optimal in some regimes. We find savings between 40% and 91% of tests for prevalences up to 10% when a small error (below 5%) is allowed. We also find that the performance degrades gracefully with noise. We expect our modular, user-friendly, publicly available platform to facilitate empirical research into non-adaptive group testing for SARS-CoV-2.

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